Waiting for US tariffs
After a subdued start, the international stock markets performed well for the most part in January. European stock markets rose more strongly than in the USA or Asia. However, the markets were anticipating the introduction of new tariffs on imports into the USA.
The German share index DAX rose the most by 7.50%, followed by the Stoxx Europe 600, which gained 5.17%. In the USA, the S&P 500 advanced by 0.78%. By contrast, the Nasdaq technology index fell by -0.68%. In Japan, the Nikkei index gained 2.15%. Overall, global equities, as measured by the MSCI World, rose by 1.64% - all index figures in euro terms.
The development on the stock markets was supported by the positive reporting season, particularly for US financial institutions. In addition, leading economic indicators in the eurozone improved: the combined purchasing managers' index for industry and the services sector in the eurozone rose unexpectedly sharply from 49.6 to 50.2 points. As expected, the European Central Bank also lowered its key interest rates by 25 basis points (to 2.75% deposit facility and 2.90% main refinancing rate). ECB President Christine Lagarde also signaled further interest rate cuts with her statement that the neutral level had not yet been reached, partly because the eurozone economy stagnated in the fourth quarter, contrary to expectations (+0.2% in the consensus).
The initially moderate statements by US President Trump (following his inauguration on January 6) on the subject of tariffs also contributed to the positive share price performance. Towards the end of the reporting period, US equities, particularly in the technology sector, fell more sharply after a cost-effective and efficient competitor entered the market in the form of the Chinese AI application DeepSeek. Towards the end of the month, Trump announced that he would impose tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico with immediate effect.
The Chinese stock market moved sideways in January despite the tariff issue. The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2024, reaching the official annual target and exceeding expectations. Growth was driven primarily by exports, although domestic consumption fared better in the fourth quarter thanks to economic stimulus measures. However, South Korea was the top performer among the Asian stock markets, followed by Singapore, while India and Indonesia, among others, fell.
On the bond markets, yields largely moved sideways in a monthly comparison. While the yield on ten-year US government bonds closed virtually unchanged at 4.54% at the end of January (previous month: 4.57%), the yield on German government bonds rose slightly by 9 basis points to 2.46%. In the meantime, however, market participants' concerns about an escalating US budget deficit weighed on yields and led to a rise in yields on 10-year US government bonds to 4.79%. Yields on investment grade corporate bonds hardly changed in a monthly comparison. EUR bonds were quoted at 3.15% (previous month: 3.18%) and their US counterparts at 5.30% yield (previous month: 5.33%). Only high-yield bonds in US dollars were able to achieve stronger price gains, with yields falling by 29 basis points. Against the backdrop of existing geopolitical uncertainties, the price of gold rose further by 6.63% from USD 2,624.50 to USD 2,798.41 per troy ounce.
Note
Marketing advertisement - All information published here is for your information only and does not constitute investment advice or any other recommendation. The statements contained in this document reflect the current assessment of DJE Kapital AG. These may change at any time without prior notice. All statements made have been made with care in accordance with the state of knowledge at the time of preparation. However, no guarantee and no liability can be assumed for the correctness and completeness.