Future market AI: who benefits, who falls behind?
Artificial intelligence (AI) remains the key topic in the technology sector. Massive investments in data centers and key technologies are driving the market forward. Leading players such as NVIDIA and specialist providers are benefiting equally from the momentum in hardware, software and new applications.
Cautious mood despite initial recovery
The market environment for artificial intelligence is currently comparatively cautious. Looking at developments since the beginning of 2023 - the start of the AI boom with the publication of ChatGPT - it is clear that sentiment has cooled considerably after the initial euphoria. Although sentiment has recovered slightly since October, the level is still low. What is striking and typical after such a correction is that only a few selected stocks have been able to benefit from the more positive market sentiment. In particular, companies whose business is 20 to 40 percent - or more - characterized by AI are showing signs of a more stable positioning.
AI hardware: key technologies for progress
The main players in the field of AI hardware include companies that develop and manufacture key components. NVIDIA, the market leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), which are crucial for AI applications, holds the largest market share with over 80 percent. In the field of high-performance memory chips (HBM), which are indispensable for AI chips, a leading manufacturer from South Korea plays a central role with an AI share of around 30 percent. Then there is Broadcom, a specialized supplier from the USA, which is active in both network equipment and chip design and generates around 20% of its sales in the AI sector. Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's leading semiconductor manufacturer, plans to achieve an AI share of over 20% from 2025.
Cloud giants are driving the AI revolution
The hyperscaler sector - companies that operate cloud data centers with enormous AI computing capacities - continues to prove robust. These players play a central role in the race to develop leading Large Language Models (LLMs) and the vision of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Although hyperscalers' share of AI revenue is still lower than that of hardware developers, they have quickly made AI a core strategic topic. Thanks to their large financial resources and existing expertise, these companies were able to successfully and quickly integrate AI into their business models.
One of the leading hyperscalers is Amazon, the world's largest provider of cloud infrastructures. In addition to using NVIDIA GPUs, the company develops its own AI chips (Trainium and Inferentia) and offers a wide range of AI development tools and models. Another player is a large cloud provider that is trying to strengthen its position in the AI sector through extensive investments and partnerships (e.g. with Microsoft and OpenAI).
Meta has successfully integrated AI into advertising and is one of the first companies to monetize AI. The company also operates one of the leading Large Language Models (LLMs) called LLaMA3.2. Microsoft established itself early in the AI sector with its Azure cloud platform and close partnership with OpenAI. However, the company is currently underweighted by institutional investors with a minus of 2.08% compared to its weighting in the S&P 500, as an analysis by Morgan Stanley shows.
Google has long been a pioneer in the field of AI and operates DeepMind, one of the world's leading AI laboratories. With Gemini, the company has developed an advanced LLM, which is, however, increasingly being challenged by platforms such as ChatGPT, Claude and Perplexity. Some queries are already being sent directly to these platforms rather than via Google search. Despite this competition, Google has been able to defend and further expand its core business.
Also worth mentioning is a leading provider in the field of autonomous vehicles, which operates as a subsidiary of Google. The company has established its service in several US cities and successfully asserted itself against long-standing competitors.
Data centers: a key component of the
AI boom
A key driver of the AI boom is the massive expansion of data centers, which are essential for the computing power of hyperscalers. A leading provider from the USA, which has specialized in the construction of such centers for years, is benefiting particularly strongly from this development. In addition to construction, the company's range of services also includes the energy connection and cooling of the facilities - key aspects given the high energy requirements and waste heat of AI infrastructures.
The combination of high quality and local presence is an important distinguishing feature of this provider compared to its competitors. The company has a specialized service team that provides direct on-site support in the USA to optimally meet customer requirements.
Market leaders holding their own, smaller providers under pressure
The aforementioned companies are among the market leaders in the field of core AI. They have already achieved significant success and consolidated their positions. In addition, there are numerous specialists and smaller companies that often pursue innovative approaches, but are also associated with greater investment risks. The recent recovery in the AI sector in particular has shown that many smaller providers have been left behind.
Medium-sized competitors in the chip or network sector are also facing challenges. They are clearly feeling the effects of the intense competition from leading companies such as NVIDIA and Broadcom. In addition, the weakness in other semiconductor segments - such as automotive, PC, smartphone, industrial and IoT - is not compensated for by the comparatively low AI shares of these companies in total sales.
Another problem for many chip suppliers is their high share of sales in China, which averages around 30%. This dependency is further dampening market expectations, particularly in view of the threat of tighter tariffs and export restrictions under the new US administration.
Market opportunities in AI software: who is setting new standards?
In the field of AI software, it is currently less clear which companies will be among the winners in the long term. This is due to the structure of the value chain: before software providers can develop and scale their solutions, the underlying infrastructure must be in place.
Some providers have already established themselves with leading and marketable AI solutions. This includes an international software developer that recently presented a platform for so-called software agents. These virtual employees should be able to carry out complete tasks independently.
ServiceNow, a platform for optimizing business processes, is also an important player. The company offers numerous automation solutions that make targeted use of AI. In areas such as HR, customer service and IT management, customers benefit from intelligent search functions, individual summaries and automated processes.
A leading provider of business software also enables the use of AI agents and assistants in various areas such as logistics, financial administration and HR management. In the field of cyber security, two market leaders rely on AI-supported technologies that analyze threats, identify security vulnerabilities and automate responses. These solutions reduce response times from hours or days to minutes, setting new standards in security management.
For investors looking to invest in the AI sector, price setbacks in these companies could offer interesting entry opportunities.
AI future markets: autonomous mobility and robotics
In the course of AI developments, the topics of robotics and self-driving cabs (robotaxis) are becoming increasingly concrete. A leading US company is considered a pioneer in the field of autonomous vehicles and has established itself with the most passenger kilometers without a driver. The company is currently expanding and is now active in cities such as Atlanta and Phoenix in addition to San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Another player in this field is pursuing a technologically different and more cost-effective approach. Instead of expensive sensors such as lidar, the US technology group Tesla is relying on AI-supported software and camera systems. The company plans to have the first robotaxis on the roads in the USA by the end of 2025. So far, however, development has been slowed down by regulatory hurdles. With the new government, in which Elon Musk himself is one of the political decision-makers, these hurdles are to be significantly reduced - a step that could give the robotaxi market additional momentum.
In China, the market for robotaxis is already more developed, presumably due to less stringent regulation. Three companies have emerged there, one of which was successfully listed on the Nasdaq in October and another is preparing its IPO. Both are working on their international expansion and are already active in cities such as Abu Dhabi, Singapore and South Korea. However, due to safety concerns, it is unlikely that Chinese robotaxis will be licensed in the USA in the foreseeable future.
Automation: innovations for everyday life and industry
Developments in the field of robotics are extremely exciting. There are numerous serious players covering different areas of application. Walking robots that can also be used in difficult environments, such as rough terrain, are just as well represented as logistics robots, robots for industrial production, medical and care applications or household robots.
It is currently difficult to identify the future winners in this sector. However, one thing is already clear: NVIDIA plays a central role in this area. Many robots use NVIDIA technology to power their systems. The company also unveiled a new version of its humanoid robot platform last week, which should be available from 2025.
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