News
Key interest rate expectations too optimistic?
Looking at the current month of December and therefore also the rest of the 2023 financial year, the positive sentiment should continue. The current year-end rally could therefore go on, but whether this will also be the case in the coming year remains to be seen.
Stock and bond market rally
Falling interest rates and renewed hopes of a moderate change of course by the Fed drove both the equity and bond markets. Investors became increasingly confident that the central banks had reached the end of their cycle of interest rate hikes. Inflation data was lower than expected on both sides of the Atlantic.
Gold price rally: what factors are driving the price?
The price of gold reached an all-time high of well over USD 2,000 per troy ounce this week. This raises the question for many investors: will the rally continue and does it make sense to add gold to my portfolio?
Weight-loss drugs take the world by
A trend is sweeping the world: the "weight-loss injection". Elon Musk has admitted to losing weight with the help of Ozempic, and Kim Kardashian is also rumoured to have done so. The hashtag Ozempic is trending on TikTok, a social media platform.
Catch-up potential until the end of the year
Looking ahead to November and the remainder of the fourth quarter, we are somewhat more confident than in previous months. A recovery on the markets is possible. Historically, November has always been a positive month after previous losses in August/September/October, based on the US S&P 500 index.
Middle East conflict drives gold price and yields
The conflict in the Middle East weighed on the stock markets and drove up yields on US government and corporate bonds in particular. As a safe haven, gold was in high demand and the price of a troy ounce rose by more than seven per cent.
AI: There is a lot of potential for investors in the supply chain
When it comes to artificial intelligence, a lot of people say it feels like a new era was ushered in this year. Historically, similar breakthroughs happened roughly every ten years. If the pattern repeats itself, we are indeed witnessing the dawn of a new era.
China: Western pessimism is overdone
China’s economy has disappointed lately. The hoped-for turnaround after the abandonment of the zero-Covid-19 policy has so far largely failed to materialise. One reason for this is that mainland Chinese hardly received any support from the state during the Covid-pandemic.
China pessimism in the Western press and among Western investors has reached a record high.
Opportunities through special situations
Looking ahead to the current month, we remain cautious, even if a short-term recovery (due to market technical factors) is possible. The monetary situation can still be classified as negative. However, if you focus on special situations, you should be able to get through this phase well.
Weak September
September is historically often a weak month in the stock market, and so it also performed negatively this year compared to the previous month. Higher bond yields in the US and Europe as well as a weaker economic outlook in Europe and China weighed on the markets.
How the IRA affects the healthcare sector
Politics usually only have short-term effects on stock markets – so they say. But the healthcare and pharmaceutical sector is an exception to this golden rule. The diverse sector is often significantly impacted by political decisions.
Automotive industry: The calm before the storm
The automotive industry in Europe seems to have stabilised as supply chain problems and cost inflation due to the Covid-19 pandemic have eased. However, the shift towards electric vehicles is profoundly affecting the sector and presents challenges for traditional manufacturers.
Short-term market recovery possible
There are various reasons for a short-term market recovery in September. In the medium term, however, we remain cautious, as economic risks are increasing, not least in Europe. We see potential in Japan and in companies that can benefit from the US Inflation Reduction Act.
Are interest rates about to plateau or peak?
Investors on both sides of the big pond are speculating whether the central banks have now reached the end of their interest rates hikes - especially in the U.S. What does the inverted yield curve mean for investors? Dr. Ulrich Kaffarnik explains what the latest developments mean for investors.
Challenging second half of the year
Looking ahead to August, we remain cautious. After the good performance in many stock markets in the first six months of this year, the next months could be more challenging.
US economy grows strongly
As in the previous month, the international stock markets showed their friendly side in July. Above all, the unexpectedly strong growth of the US economy in the second quarter had a positive effect on the stock markets. In addition, many market participants expect that the central banks in Europe and the USA will not take any further interest rate steps after the interest rate hikes in July.
Key industry for decarbonisation
Commodities have fared better in the past. But since the beginning of 2022, it seems, the worm has been in the wind. Production, profits and revenues of mining companies are falling, only costs are rising. But the sector is consolidating and a bottom is in sight. Moreover, the current mine supply cannot meet demand for some metals. This applies first and foremost to the key metal of decarbonisation: copper.
Cloud Computing – renting instead of (self-)making
In retrospect, 2006 was a decisive year for online retailing: the industry giant Amazon opened up its IT infrastructure, which until then had been used exclusively by itself, to other retailers and companies as a service. These "Amazon Web Services" include a broad range of different technical solutions that can be booked and cancelled according to individual needs. „Cloud computing" developed from this. In the following analysis, investors will learn about the complexity behind it, the opportunities that arise from it and which companies currently dominate the market.
Liquidity becomes more precious
The bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency takeover of the major Swiss bank Credit Suisse by its even larger rival UBS have unsettled the markets. While a broad banking crisis is unlikely, other consequences, such as for liquidity and credit, are foreseeable. DJE's banking analyst and fund manager Moritz Rehmann explains how DJE is dealing with the issue.
Light at the end of the tunnel?
With inflation easing, a recovery of German equitites of the residential real estate sector is possible. Certainly, the interest rate turnaround at the ECB will still take time, but the increase of key interest rates are beginning to take effect. The easing of energy costs is also having a supportive effect. In this environment a 30 percent correction of real estate prices anticipated by the market seems exaggerated, especially as the housing shortage continues to worsen. New construction should remain at a very low level in the coming years, while the influx of refugees from Ukraine is continuing at record levels.