News
Europe heralds interest rate turnaround, markets remain stable
We remain constructive with regard to the month of June. A massive slump on the markets is not currently expected. Interest rates may have peaked this year and could now fall. Overall, however, the interest rate environment in both the USA and Europe is unlikely to fall as quickly as planned or hoped. Bonds in the medium maturity range remain interesting.
Doves and falcons
The stock markets in Europe and North America performed well in May and were largely able to equalise the losses from the previous month. This positive development was once again driven by market expectations that the doves could prevail over the hawks in monetary policy. However, the rally stuttered from around the middle of the month onwards, as various data suggested that inflation would remain stubbornly high.
2024 is a good year for bonds
It doesn't really matter whether key interest rates fall this year or not: "2024 is a good year for bonds and will remain so," says Tobias Geishauser, Co-Fund Manager of DJE - Zins Global. Speculation about falling interest rates had already boosted the bond market last year.
AI and local production plans drive the semiconductor industry
Artificial intelligence (AI) is currently the dominant topic in the technology sector. New, fast data centres require enormous investments. Microsoft and OpenAI recently announced that they will invest USD 100 billion in an AI data centre project.
Good US economic data and AI provide momentum
The stock markets maintained their momentum from the previous month in February and performed very favourably. The continuing enthusiasm for the topic of artificial intelligence drove the markets, as did good economic data from the USA. The markets in Asia also rose sharply. One factor behind this could be the hope that Chinese growth will pick up again.
Textile business in upheaval
The surprising change in management at Sweden's largest textile supplier and the restructuring measures initiated there are a wake-up call. After all, they show that the textile trade is still in a state of upheaval. While the coronavirus pandemic temporarily strengthened online-only providers in particular, aggressive pricing concepts are now gaining in importance in the wake of excessive inflation.
Market expectations: too optimistic about interest rate cuts?
2024 got off to a positive start: the global MSCI share index gained around 2.85 per cent in the first month of the year, while the DAX rose by 0.91 per cent. The upward trend was primarily driven by the good performance of technology and healthcare stocks.
Positive Momentum
The international stock markets initially moved mostly sideways in January and were able to maintain their positive momentum from before the turn of the year in the second half of the month. Only China, otherwise a strong driving force behind the global economy, is sluggish. And hopes of interest rate cuts turned out to be premature.
Where has the momentum gone?
Electric vehicle (EV) stocks have recently come under pressure - as have most companies in the battery value chain: in 2024 to date, for example, the share prices of the world's two leading EV producers have fallen. Up-and-coming, smaller listed companies have lost even more ground.
Interest rate optimism supports equity and bond markets
The positive trend on the international equity and bond markets continued in December, albeit not quite as briskly as in the previous month. Market participants expected interest rate cuts against the backdrop of falling inflation data. The US Federal Reserve held out the prospect of this for 2024.
Key interest rate expectations too optimistic?
Looking at the current month of December and therefore also the rest of the 2023 financial year, the positive sentiment should continue. The current year-end rally could therefore go on, but whether this will also be the case in the coming year remains to be seen.
Stock and bond market rally
Falling interest rates and renewed hopes of a moderate change of course by the Fed drove both the equity and bond markets. Investors became increasingly confident that the central banks had reached the end of their cycle of interest rate hikes. Inflation data was lower than expected on both sides of the Atlantic.