News
Stock markets remain stable
The probability of a hard landing for the US economy remains low - if there is no recession in the forthcoming interest rate correction phase, the stock markets should continue to rise.
Interest rate expectations shift to mid-year
In March, the equity markets largely continued their bullish trend from the previous months. However, market expectations of interest rate cuts by the central banks in the USA and the eurozone shifted to the middle of the year.
Stock rally hinges on a few shares
The markets also lacked market breadth in February, and this should continue for the time being: The stocks that are very highly weighted in the indices will probably continue to perform better and the high concentration will therefore remain in the markets.
Good US economic data and AI provide momentum
The stock markets maintained their momentum from the previous month in February and performed very favourably. The continuing enthusiasm for the topic of artificial intelligence drove the markets, as did good economic data from the USA. The markets in Asia also rose sharply. One factor behind this could be the hope that Chinese growth will pick up again.
Textile business in upheaval
The surprising change in management at Sweden's largest textile supplier and the restructuring measures initiated there are a wake-up call. After all, they show that the textile trade is still in a state of upheaval. While the coronavirus pandemic temporarily strengthened online-only providers in particular, aggressive pricing concepts are now gaining in importance in the wake of excessive inflation.
Market expectations: too optimistic about interest rate cuts?
2024 got off to a positive start: the global MSCI share index gained around 2.85 per cent in the first month of the year, while the DAX rose by 0.91 per cent. The upward trend was primarily driven by the good performance of technology and healthcare stocks.
Positive Momentum
The international stock markets initially moved mostly sideways in January and were able to maintain their positive momentum from before the turn of the year in the second half of the month. Only China, otherwise a strong driving force behind the global economy, is sluggish. And hopes of interest rate cuts turned out to be premature.
Where has the momentum gone?
Electric vehicle (EV) stocks have recently come under pressure - as have most companies in the battery value chain: in 2024 to date, for example, the share prices of the world's two leading EV producers have fallen. Up-and-coming, smaller listed companies have lost even more ground.
What to look out for in stock markets in 2024?
It was an euphoric end for stock markets in 2023. Most of the major stock market indices, including the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Stoxx Europe 600 and the Japanese TOPIX, ended the year with a significant gain.
Stock Market Growth Beyond the Magnificent Seven
Quite a few market participants expect the central banks to cut interest rates in 2024, in some cases rapidly. In our view, these expectations are probably too optimistic.
Interest rate optimism supports equity and bond markets
The positive trend on the international equity and bond markets continued in December, albeit not quite as briskly as in the previous month. Market participants expected interest rate cuts against the backdrop of falling inflation data. The US Federal Reserve held out the prospect of this for 2024.
Key interest rate expectations too optimistic?
Looking at the current month of December and therefore also the rest of the 2023 financial year, the positive sentiment should continue. The current year-end rally could therefore go on, but whether this will also be the case in the coming year remains to be seen.
Stock and bond market rally
Falling interest rates and renewed hopes of a moderate change of course by the Fed drove both the equity and bond markets. Investors became increasingly confident that the central banks had reached the end of their cycle of interest rate hikes. Inflation data was lower than expected on both sides of the Atlantic.
Gold price rally: what factors are driving the price?
The price of gold reached an all-time high of well over USD 2,000 per troy ounce this week. This raises the question for many investors: will the rally continue and does it make sense to add gold to my portfolio?
Weight-loss drugs take the world by
A trend is sweeping the world: the "weight-loss injection". Elon Musk has admitted to losing weight with the help of Ozempic, and Kim Kardashian is also rumoured to have done so. The hashtag Ozempic is trending on TikTok, a social media platform.
Catch-up potential until the end of the year
Looking ahead to November and the remainder of the fourth quarter, we are somewhat more confident than in previous months. A recovery on the markets is possible. Historically, November has always been a positive month after previous losses in August/September/October, based on the US S&P 500 index.
Middle East conflict drives gold price and yields
The conflict in the Middle East weighed on the stock markets and drove up yields on US government and corporate bonds in particular. As a safe haven, gold was in high demand and the price of a troy ounce rose by more than seven per cent.
AI: There is a lot of potential for investors in the supply chain
When it comes to artificial intelligence, a lot of people say it feels like a new era was ushered in this year. Historically, similar breakthroughs happened roughly every ten years. If the pattern repeats itself, we are indeed witnessing the dawn of a new era.
China: Western pessimism is overdone
China’s economy has disappointed lately. The hoped-for turnaround after the abandonment of the zero-Covid-19 policy has so far largely failed to materialise. One reason for this is that mainland Chinese hardly received any support from the state during the Covid-pandemic.
China pessimism in the Western press and among Western investors has reached a record high.
Opportunities through special situations
Looking ahead to the current month, we remain cautious, even if a short-term recovery (due to market technical factors) is possible. The monetary situation can still be classified as negative. However, if you focus on special situations, you should be able to get through this phase well.